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SYNDICATE 0727
NOTES TO THE ANNUAL FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
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31 DECEMBER 2024
2.
RISK MANAGEMENT (CONTINUED)
The largest element of this margin above best estimate is to address the risk of the emergence of latent claims situations which
remain totally outside our knowledge, especially from general third-party liability coverages (which exist within more than
one of Lloyd’s main classes of business). These are claims that arise from causes giving rise to damage which is not identified
until some years after the event that caused it. When the damage and the causes are identified they can lead to claims
for substantial amounts on many years of account that had appeared to be fully run off. In the most important historical
examples, asbestos and pollution, it can be seen that changing scientific knowledge and legal frameworks can completely
transform expected claims outcomes on any book of business. There have been few such categories of significant claims in
the last 20 years but exposures remain. Potential sources for such future emergence of latent claims include failings in care
and abuse of individuals, large-scale financial manipulation, various chemicals and products in everyday use and risks arising
from the increasingly cyber-dependent world.
During 2016 a general model for evaluating latent exposures from occurrence-form liability business was developed by the
Syndicate, using post World War II history as a guide, and this model has been used regularly since then. The calculation
takes into account various factors including the comparative scale of the previous losses, the Syndicate’s relevant exposure
expressed in terms of total policy limits issued post 1992, exposure periods and the expected future frequency of such losses
in order to estimate the impact of future losses similar in scale and nature. The most critical assumption is the probability
that such a scale of latent loss will recur and affect these exposed years. The Syndicate continues to analyse and refine this
calculation and calibrate it in line with all available information, and to refine its evaluation of its exposure to latent losses
emerging, particularly from its long tail US business. The next most critical factor is the estimated premium rate (the ratio
between the premium and the policy limits). Application at December 2024 of re-assessed exposures has resulted in a largely
unchanged ultimate latent loss reserve when expressed in US$ terms.
The modelled output reserve amount for earned latent liability exposures as at 31 December 2024 has been calculated as
£84.0m, which represents 56% of the overall margin (2023: £82.7m and 74% of the overall margin). The whole of this
reserve falls within the margin as reserves for ”the emergence of new claims types” and is not included in best-estimate
calculations, in line with Lloyd’s Valuation of Liabilities Rules.
There is a fundamental and inherent uncertainty in reserving for latent losses which may or may not develop in future years.
Accordingly, the current reserve established by the Syndicate to cater for these losses may prove to be insufficient, or excessive,
depending upon the future development of latent losses.
Another set of liabilities, which first came to the attention of the Syndicate in 2016, relates to today’s better understanding
of the brain damage arising from certain sporting activity. Many plaintiffs who have clearly suffered real harm resulting from
their participation in certain sports have come forward and many thousands of suits have been filed by players of these sports
especially in the United States. The events being complained of allegedly took place in the 1970s and in almost every year
since. Many millions of dollars have been spent by insureds and insurers in defending these suits. In cases where the syndicate
has a direct involvement, the plaintiffs have yet to win a single case. Nevertheless, the costs to the syndicate have already
proven to be material. To date the syndicate has paid for defence costs of approximately US$3.7million and has reserved for
ultimate costs and losses of US$40.1million. This reserve is in addition to reserves based on the modelled output for latent
losses described in preceding paragraphs.
Thus, the overall level of reserve has a significant margin to absorb a reasonable amount of such losses and to allow for the
possibility of claims developments on policies decades after those policies have expired, which has always been a part of the
reserving philosophy for Syndicate 0727. For any syndicate which has been operating for several decades latent exposures
from past years have the potential to have a significant effect on the syndicate’s fortunes should losses materialise, and a
cautious reserve is therefore a vital part of any long-term survival plan.
The Syndicate also assesses its liabilities on a best-estimate basis, the results of which are not intended to be conservative,
and which are designed to be used in certain returns to Lloyd’s. These estimates are designed to comply with the technical-
provisions requirements of Solvency II, which also require other elements to be added to the technical provisions. The
estimated unpaid claims on the best-estimate basis are lower than those used by the Syndicate for accounting purposes; these
differences tend to be greatest in long-tailed lines of business, such as liability, and smallest in the short-tail property-related
lines, although property coverage also includes incidental liability cover for personal and small-business accounts, and an
appropriate proportion of the latent-claim reserve remains in the property classes. The best-estimate provisions are set using
a variety of standard and adapted actuarial methods. Both sets of estimates are considered by the Board, which adopts them
for their particular uses.